The real estate market in 2024 has gone through a phase of transition: a decrease in transactions, a drop in prices for existing properties, but the beginning of stabilization in credit rates. For an investor, the question is not whether the market will recover, but which segments offer an acceptable risk-adjusted return.
This article measures the gaps between existing and new properties, between major metropolitan areas and medium-sized cities, and between the rental yield profiles observed during this period.
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Real Estate Transactions and Prices in 2024: The Gap Overview
The available data outlines a two-speed market. The volume of sales in the existing market continued its contraction that began in 2023, the year when 869,000 transactions were recorded compared to 1.12 million in 2022. For 2024, the forecasts from the Conseil supérieur du notariat estimated sales of existing homes to be below 750,000, representing an additional decline of about 11% compared to 2023.
Prices followed a similar trajectory. In 2023, the average decline reached 4% year-on-year according to the CSN. The end of 2024 showed signs of stabilization, without a real rebound. Analyses published on monde-immobilier.com confirm this view of a market where sellers are gradually adjusting their expectations.
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| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Transactions (homes) | 1.12 million | 869,000 | Less than 750,000 |
| Price Evolution (existing, annual average) | Moderate increase | -4% | Stabilization |
| New Market (developers) | Sustained activity | Net decline | Increased failures |
This table summarizes the dynamics: the volume of transactions has dropped by more than a third between 2022 and the end of 2024. For the investor, this contraction means less competition for purchases, but also an increased liquidity risk upon resale.
Rental Investment: Yield and Trade-off Between Existing and New
The choice between existing and new properties goes beyond a simple comparison of price per square meter. In 2024, the new market went through a structural crisis. The number of developer failures has significantly increased, with a rise of over 50% in procedures in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to the Altares firm.
This fragility creates a tangible risk for buyers in VEFA (Vente en l’État Futur d’Achèvement): delivery delays, stalled operations, or even loss of the deposit in extreme cases. However, the gradual return of individual investors to new properties since the end of 2024 indicates that some are finding opportunities due to the drop in VEFA sale prices and the maintenance of tax incentives.
How the Context Changes Rental Yield
An investment in existing properties today benefits from negotiable prices. Buyers have a favorable bargaining position against eager sellers. The gross yield is mechanically improved in areas where rents have not decreased.
- In the existing market, the margin for negotiation on the purchase price can reach several percentage points, which directly improves rental yield without additional management effort.
- In new VEFA properties, the risk of developer failure requires checking the financial solidity of the operator and prioritizing extrinsic completion guarantees.
- Medium-sized cities where rental demand remains tight often offer a better ratio between acquisition price and rent received than major metropolitan areas, where gross yield is compressed.
Mortgage Rates and Borrowing Capacity in 2024
The evolution of interest rates has been the main lever of the market over the past two years. After the rapid rise of 2022-2023, rates began a gradual decline throughout 2024. This decrease, still modest, has reopened the financing window for some buyers who had been excluded from the market.
The mechanism is direct: a one-point reduction in the rate on a twenty-year loan significantly increases borrowing capacity. For an investor, this changes the calculation of net yield, as the cost of financing weighs less on the monthly cash flow.
A Two-Speed Recovery Depending on Profiles
The data from the MeilleursAgents barometer describes a two-speed real estate recovery. First-time buyers and households with modest incomes remain constrained by credit granting conditions. Investors with significant equity or existing assets capture most of the opportunities.
This asymmetry is geographically reflected. The Paris and Île-de-France markets, where unit prices remain high, struggle to regain volume. Intermediate cities are experiencing more sustained activity, driven by accessible entry prices and rental demand fueled by professional mobility.
New Supply and Developer Risk: A Factor to Monitor for Investment
The pressure on new supply is a signal not to be underestimated. Building permits have declined in recent years, which foreshadows a short-term deficit of newly delivered housing in certain tight areas. For an investor positioned in rentals, this scarcity supports rents and the valuation of existing assets.
In the medium term, a catch-up in construction starts could rebalance supply. Sitadel data shows that the construction cycle follows market signals with a two to three-year lag. A turnaround in building permits in 2025-2026 would only produce effects by 2028.
- The scarcity of new supply supports rents in tight areas in the short term.
- Developer failures further reduce the flow of deliveries, exacerbating the shortage.
- An investor in well-located existing properties benefits doubly: negotiable purchase prices and rents maintained by the lack of competing supply.
The real estate market in 2024 has not offered a spectacular rebound, but it has created favorable entry conditions for investors capable of financing their acquisition. The contraction in transactions, the fragility of new properties, and the stabilization of rates shape an environment where geographical selectivity and segment choice determine profitability much more than market timing.